2024 was a pretty good year. I recommended readers buy MicroStrategy (MSTR) when it was at $67 and I told them to sell half at $535. We are still holding the other half and expect good things. Readers are also up 135% on bitcoin and climbing.
There was a recommendation for Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) at $747.50 well before an article in the Wall Street Journal launched it to $1,730 a share. And we bought a handful of Indian stocks that were breaking out. Time Technoplast is up 94%.
Here is my 2024 predictions which I wrote at the end of 2023.
- “Oil Prices will Be Flat”
WTI Crude opened the year at $70.50 a barrel and is now trading at $71.09. I was off by $0.59. Sorry about that.
I wrote:
“Oil production in the U.S. is hitting records over 13 million barrels a day. At the same time Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Norway are also increasing production.
Unless there is an escalation of war in the Middle East or China invades Taiwan, oil prices should bounce between $63 and $80 for the first half of 2024. Biden has mentioned that he will refill the SPR if oil gets to the low $60s a barrel, but it is unlikely in an election year.
OPEC is holding the line on production cuts as Saudi Arabia wants to fund its new straight line city in the desert, but Angola, a smaller oil producer, has stated it is leaving the group. And Brazil, a new member joining next year, says it won’t abide by the production cuts. Other OPEC members follow or simply cheat on production numbers like they have done in the past.”
- “Oil Tankers will do well”
The tanker stocks went up another 40% before running into the annual off-season weakness. Over the last two months, they tanked on global recession fears in Q4 just as I had forecast.
Last year I wrote:
“I’ve been long oil tanker stocks like Frontline (FRO) and Scorpio Tankers (STNG) for about three years now. There is a shortage of ships that move oil around the world and they aren’t launching new ones until Q4 2024.
The Russian war and the attacks off Yemen mean that tankers must travel farther to supply the world with energy. On top of that, these stocks are cheap. FRO has a 14% dividend and has a p/e under 6. There are a number of them out there. Look to buy the Norwegian based shipping companies and stay away from the Greeks who are less shareholder friendly.”
I no longer own oil tankers, though I do own Golar LNG (GLNG) which is a natural gas tanker company that is up 95% year to date. Natural gas is in demand.
- Russell 2000 jumps 30%
I wrote:
“The small cap stocks have been underperforming the big guys for over 10 years. Historically when interest rates are cut, the smaller stocks do the best. If you look at the chart and follow the trendline you get right around 2,600 on the Russell up from 2,001 today. If you have a 401k or the like, move some money out of the DJIA or S&P500 and into a small cap index fund. I prefer growth over value.”
The small caps have been a bit of a disappointment. The IWM is trading at 234 down from a peak of $242. It is up 17.2% for the year. I’ll call that a win.
- Bitcoin to $130,000
I wrote:
Bitcoin halving is coming on April 7, 2024. This is when the payment of bitcoin to miners gets cut in half. This reduces supply and gives speculators a reason to buy. Bitcoin halving has occurred four times in total. Each time it happens the crypto coin has gone up anywhere from 600% to 3000%.
Furthermore, each time there is a halving event Bitcoin goes up about half as much as it did the prior time. After some basic math this gives us a forecast of $130,000 per bitcoin. There are other stocks that should do well or better, such as the BTC miners. These stocks have already started to move. Marathon Digital (MARA) which I own personally, is up from $3 to $24 this year.
Bitcoin hit $107,000 a coin today. I got the trend correct and we have two weeks left. You never know.
- El Salvador: The Turnaround Story of the Decade
I wrote:
El Salvador has long been the epitome of drug gangs, corruption, civil war and poverty. But this is changing fast. A few years ago President Nayib Bukele started buying bitcoin as part of El Salvadors’ currency reserves. He took some hits politically when BTC crashed but now that it is above $43,000 he is back in the black and it is starting to look like a prescient idea.
President Bukele also got tough on crime and tossed 10s of thousands of gang members in jail. This has led to some criticism from human rights activists in New York, but lots of praise from the people of El Salvador who were fed up with the criminals. Bukele is up for reelection in February and is leading in all the polls.
El Salvador recently saw its GDP growth rate increase to 3% in the third quarter and its credit rating was raised to b- by Standard and Poors.
On top of that I’m starting to see travel blogs talk up the country as a great place to visit before the tourists start showing up. You can buy a nice beach house starting in the 100,000s. There is also some great surfing if you are into that sort of thing.
This was spot on. Bukele was reelected with massive support. He has gotten his country out of debt by buying Bitcoin. Real Estate prices are up 15 to 45% and he is posting his wins on X:
No wonder his approval rating is the best in the world at 91%. On Wednesday I’ll Tell you what will happen in 2025.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
Losers:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/ai-losers/
Trump rings the bell:
https://www.outsiderclub.com/trump-rings-the-bell-at-the-top/
Not too late to buy:
